Radiotherapy services modelling tool

With significant change in the commissioning landscape for radiotherapy services, a new modelling programme has been developed to estimate future demand for treatment.

Using local cancer incidence for England and evidence-based decision trees, the Malthus programme calculates radiotherapy demand requirements. By producing an answer in terms of fractions per million population, it can model forward to take account of changes in cancer incidence as the population ages and profile changes.

By focusing on local information, the Malthus output is likely to produce more realistic information on radiotherapy demand than the current NRAG model, which was prepared in 2006. As a result, it is intended as a decision aid for planning and commissioning radiotherapy services at a local or regional level; the aim is not to provide a national overview.

Professor Sir Mike Richards, National Cancer Director, National Cancer Action Team, has written to all Cancer Network Directors to inform them of Malthus’ key points:

• By modelling local demand for radiotherapy, local plans can be developed;
• Demand is different to capacity, meaning an allowance for variation in workload, training and service development needs to be made;
• Understanding local NAEDI initiatives and their impact will support a more accurate Malthus model;
• Local capacity on Linacs and equipment will depend on a variety of clinical issues;
• The need to share results and output with the National Team so that the model can be refined.

Click here to read the letter in full and here for FAQs.

As well as providing a needs-based service, the use of Malthus for radiotherapy planning ensures that waits do not build up and will inform strong commissioning discussions with providers.

Malthus does not include all radiotherapy requirements and only models the treatment of adults with cancer by external megavoltage radiotherapy.

In his letter, Professor Sir Mike Richards also outlines the need for robust and timely plans in terms of equipment replacement programmes.

Click here for details on how to download the Malthus programme.